This past week was relatively quiet in terms of major macroeconomic events, allowing investors to shift their attention to technical signals. That being said, the Bank of England's rate decision remained a key focal point, with markets pricing in a rate cut. Business activity data from both the United States and the Eurozone also played a role in shaping market sentiment and short-term volatility.
United States:
● Industrial Orders (Month-over-Month) (June). Actual figure: -4.8% / Forecast: -4.9% / Previous: 8.2%. The sharp decline after a strong prior reading pointed to a potential slowdown in the US manufacturing sector.
Eurozone:
● Services PMI (July). Actual figure: 51.0 / Forecast: 51.2 / Previous: 51.2%. Although slightly below forecast, the index remained above 50, indicating ongoing expansion and relative economic stability.
United Kingdom:
● Services PMI (July). Actual figure: 51.8 / Forecast: 51.2 / Previous: 51.2. A moderate improvement in the reading provided temporary support for the GBP.
United States:
● Services PMI (July). Actual figure: 55.7 / Forecast: 55.2 / Previous: 55.2. A stronger-than-expected figure reflected solid growth in the services sector.
● ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (July). Actual: 50.1 / Forecast: 51.5 / Previous: 50.8. Weaker-than-expected ISM data contrasted with the PMI reading, creating mixed signals and limiting the USD's directional reaction.
United Kingdom:
● Construction PMI (July). Actual figure: 44.3 / Forecast: 49.2 / Previous: 48.8. A significant drop below the 50 mark indicated a deeper contraction in the UK construction sector.
United States:
● Crude Oil Inventories. Actual figure: -3.029M / Previous: 7.698M. A notable decrease in inventories supports a bullish outlook for oil prices.
Australia:
● Trade Balance (June). Actual: 5.365B / Forecast: 3.250B / Previous: 2.238B. A stronger-than-expected trade surplus boosted sentiment around the AUD. However, strong bullish sentiment for the AUD is not yet visible in the market: next week, the RBA will hold a meeting at which it may cut the interest rate.
Germany:
● Trade Balance (June). Actual figure: 14.9B / Forecast: 18.3B / Previous: 18.4B. Weaker trade data exerted brief pressure on the EUR.
United Kingdom:
● Interest Rate Decision (August). Actual figure: 4.00% / Forecast: 4.00% / Previous: 4.25%. A Bank of England rate cut was the main event of the week for the GBP. lthough a rate cut usually puts pressure on a national currency, the GBP did not react to the regulator's decision this time. The reason is that markets had already priced in analysts' forecasts, which pointed to a 90% probability of monetary policy easing.
● BoE Inflation Letter. The Bank’s remarks on inflation played a critical role following the rate decision.
Canada:
● Ivey PMI (July). Actual figure: 55/8 / Forecast: 55.2 / Previous: 53.3. An uptick in business activity was a supportive factor for the CAD. Consequently, a continued rise in the USD/CAD pair can be expected, especially as the US dollar is under pressure from the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September.
Japan:
●Household Spending (Year-over-Year) (June). Actual figure: 1.3% / Forecast: 2.8% / Previous: 4.7%. A slowdown in consumer spending may exert pressure on the JPY.
Canada:
● Unemployment Rate (July). Forecast: 7.0% / Previous: 6.9%. A projected increase in unemployment could weigh on the CAD.
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