An important week lies ahead as we step into early August. The spotlight will be on fresh US labor market statistics (ADP, JOLTS, and the key NFP release on Friday), Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMI) from ISM and S&P Global, as well as the ECB report and foreign trade data from major economies. Peak volatility is expected on Wednesday and Friday, so buckle up for strong market reactions across currency pairs and crude oil.
United States
2:00 p.m. GMT: ISM Manufacturing PMI (July) (Fact: 55,6: Forecast: 54.0; Previous figure: 53.3)
📆 Tuesday, August 4
Canada
12:30 p.m. GMT: Trade Balance (June) (Forecast: 3.00B; Previous figure: 4.24B)
United States
2:00 p.m. GMT: JOLTS Job Openings (June) (Forecast: 7.420M; Previous figure: 7.594M)
Eurozone
8:00 a.m. GMT: S&P Global Services PMI (July) (Forecast: 51.6; Previous figure: 51.6)
8:00 a.m. GMT: S&P Global Composite PMI (July) (Forecast: 51.9; Previous figure: 51.9)
United States
12:15 p.m. GMT: 🔥ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (July) (Forecast: 71K; Previous figure: 98K)
1:45 p.m. GMT: S&P Global Services PMI (July) (Forecast: 53.6; Previous figure: 53.6)
1:45 p.m. GMT: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (July) (Forecast: 54.2; Previous figure: 54.0)
📆 Thursday, August 6
Eurozone
8:00 a.m. GMT: ECB Monthly Report
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims (Forecast: 205K; Previous figure: 197K)
Japan
11:30 p.m. GMT: Household Spending (YoY) (June) (Forecast: 0.9%; Previous figure: -0.4%)
Germany
6:00 a.m. GMT: German Trade Balance (June) (Forecast: 17.0B; Previous figure: 19.1B)
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT: 🔥 Labor Market Data Block (Non-Farm Payrolls):
Nonfarm Payrolls (July) (Forecast: 88K; Previous figure: 57K)
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (July) (Forecast: 0.3%; Previous figure: 0.3%)
This week will reveal the true health of the US labor market and services sector. The releases of the ADP report on Wednesday and the official Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday are traditional catalysts for heightened volatility across dollar pairs, gold, and stock indices.
Key rules for the week:
Wednesday and Friday (12:15 p.m. – 12:30 p.m. GMT). Reduce your risks or stay out of the market entirely during these high-impact US news releases. The initial 15-minute moves often end up being false.
Avoid playing the guessing game. Wait for clear technical price levels to fully form after the initial impulse.
Keep an eye on crude oil inventories on Wednesday, since the inventory report could trigger sharp swings in Brent crude against the backdrop of geopolitical factors.
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