What’s Ahead: Weekly Macroeconomic Calendar for July 21-July 25, 2025

This week's macro calendar is lighter than in previous weeks, likely prompting a shift in market focus from fundamentals to technical setups. Still, several key events lie ahead, including speeches from central bank heads (Bailey, Powell), the ECB rate decision, and business activity and retail sales data from the U.S. Thursday stands out as the most eventful day.

Monday, July 21

Canada:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Raw Material Price Index (Month-over-Month) (June). Forecast: -0.1% / Previous: -0.4%.

New Zealand:
● 10:45 p.m. GMT: Trade Balance (Month-over-Month) (June). Forecast: 1.020M / Previous: 1.235M. A potential decline in the trade surplus could weigh on the NZD.

Tuesday, July 22

United Kingdom:
● 9:15 a.m.: Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks. Markets will watch closely for guidance on monetary policy and economic prospects.

United States:
● 12:30 p.m.: Fed Chair Powell speaks. Comments on the rate outlook and inflation trajectory could trigger USD volatility.

Wednesday, July 23

Singapore:
● 5:00 a.m. GMT: Core CPI (Year-over-Year) (June). Previous: 0.60%.

United States:
● 2:00 p.m.: Existing Home Sales (June). Forecast: 4.01M / Previous: 4.03M.
● 2:30 p.m.: Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: 0.213M. Inventory shifts could affect regional oil pricing.

Japan:
● 11:50 p.m. GMT: Trade Balance (June). Forecast: 353.9B / Previous: -638.6B. A forecasted surplus could lend support to the JPY.

Thursday, July 24

Eurozone:
● 8:00 a.m.: Manufacturing PMI (July). Forecast: 49.7 / Previous: 49.5.
● 8:00 a.m.: Services PMI (July). Forecast: 50.6 / Previous: 50.5.
● 12:15 p.m.: ECB Interest Rate Decision (July). Forecast: 2.15% / Previous: 2.15%. (12:45 p.m.: ECB Press Conference). While rates are expected to remain unchanged, market attention will shift to the ECB’s tone and forward guidance.

United States:
● 12:30 a.m.: Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 229K / Previous: 221K.
● 1:45 p.m.: Manufacturing PMI (July). Forecast: 52.7 / Previous: 52.9.
● 1:45 p.m.: Services PMI (July). Forecast: 53.0 / Previous: 52.9.
● 2:00 p.m.: New Home Sales (June). Forecast: 651K / Previous: 623K.

Canada:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Core Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (May). Forecast: -0.1% / Previous: -0.3%. A smaller decline in retail sales could offer slight support to the CAD.

Friday, July 25

United Kingdom:
● 6:00 a.m.: Core Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (June). Previous: -2.8%.

Germany:
● 8:30 a.m. GMT: German Business Expectations (July). Forecast: 91.3 / Previous: 90.7. A higher reading could reflect increased business confidence and benefit the EUR.

Tips for Traders

● This week, with fewer major releases on the agenda, the technical analysis might take on more importance. Still, keep an eye on key speeches by central bankers – Bailey (Tuesday) and Powell (Tuesday) – as their remarks could have a strong influence on the GBP and USD.
● The ECB’s rate decision on Thursday, along with the following press conference, will also be a major event for the EUR. Expect heightened volatility on that day.
● Overall, Thursday is shaping up to be the busiest day, featuring a heavy load of PMI and home sales data from the US, as well as figures from the Eurozone. Take advantage of these moments to spot entry opportunities, but make sure to stick to strict risk management.