The EUR/USD pair is still trading in a tight range as traders stay cautious ahead of upcoming US macroeconomic releases.
Possible technical scenarios:
As we can see on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair has shifted lower, pulling back beneath the descending trendline resistance. From this point, the price still has room to decline toward 1.1494 and 1.1399.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Strong US data continues to influence the pair’s direction. Improvements in the New York manufacturing index and rising construction spending strengthen expectations of ongoing economic resilience in the US. Investors are waiting for further cues from the ADP and factory orders reports, while the upcoming NFP employment release remains the key indicator that could shift expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Remarks from Fed officials are also contributing to the uncertainty. Suggestions that rates could be cut if labor demand weakens are capping the dollar’s upside, but doubts persist about a December rate cut. This is preventing traders from taking bold positions and is keeping the pair stable within its range.
The absence of major eurozone news leaves the euro without strong catalysts, making the pair’s moves heavily reliant on external factors and shifts in risk sentiment. With global appetite subdued and focus centered on US data, the euro sees only modest support, and the short-term direction of EUR/USD will be determined primarily by US indicators.
Intraday technical picture:
According to the 4H EUR/USD chart, the price still has significant room to fall within the current downtrend and the sideways corridor between 1.1651 and 1.1494.
GBP/USD is trading quietly ahead of the UK inflation release. The market is increasing the chances of an upcoming Bank of England policy easing, which is adding to investor caution.
Possible technical scenarios:
On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade 1.3147. There is a possibility that the upward correction could extend toward the dotted resistance at 1.3279 before the pair moves back toward November lows.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The anticipated drop in October inflation remains the key factor shaping the pound’s short-term direction. Forecasts point to a moderate slowdown in both headline and core CPI, which could reinforce expectations for a December rate cut. However, even stronger-than-expected data is unlikely to shift sentiment significantly, given the weak labor market and signs of cooling economic activity. This combination strengthens the case for looser monetary policy.
The external backdrop is also influencing the pound: traders are reducing expectations for aggressive Fed easing after US officials cautioned about the risk of inflation resurging. This is supporting the dollar and limiting any meaningful attempts by the pound to strengthen, making the upcoming UK data even more crucial for determining the pair’s next direction.
Additional weight on the pound comes from macroeconomic releases expected later this week: retail sales data and preliminary November PMI readings could further illustrate the extent of the UK’s economic slowdown.
Intraday technical picture:
As evidenced by the 4H chart, the pair is forming a tightening range around 1.3147, from which it may break either upward toward the dotted resistance at 1.3279 or downward toward November lows.
The USD/JPY pair continues to strengthen as the dollar rises ahead of key upcoming US macroeconomic data.
Possible technical scenarios:
The USD/JPY pair on the daily chart has broken out of the narrow 153.19–154.31 range and is trying to consolidate above 155.03. If this consolidation succeeds, the upward movement could extend toward 156.71.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The Japanese yen did not manage to gain strength despite intervention concerns following comments from Japan’s Finance Minister about preventing sharp currency swings. The yen remains under pressure due to ongoing uncertainty around the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy.
The fundamental landscape for the JPY is mixed. Weak GDP data is increasing doubts about the Bank of Japan’s ability to tighten policy, while the government’s fiscal stimulus plans raise questions about the long-term stability of public finances. These factors are limiting the yen’s potential to strengthen, even with temporary demand fueled by intervention risks.
The pair is also being shaped by shifting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. Statements from US officials have reduced market expectations of an imminent rate cut, providing additional support for the dollar. Traders are now waiting for the delayed US labor market report for September, postponed due to the government shutdown.
Intraday technical picture:
Judging by the 4H chart of the USD/JPY pair, we see the price consolidating above 155.03. If this level continues to act as support, the uptrend could extend toward the 156.71 target.
The USD/CAD pair is still trading in a tight range above 1.4000 as the market processes Canadian inflation data and reacts to shifting expectations regarding the Fed.
Possible technical scenarios:
The daily chart shows that the USD/CAD pair remains in an uptrend and is gradually moving toward a corrective decline, aiming for the channel’s support. The price is currently stalled at 1.4013, but if it fails after the current consolidation, weakness may extend toward the lower boundary of the channel, near the dotted line at 1.3924.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The fundamental backdrop for USD/CAD remains mixed. The Canadian dollar weakened following the release of the October inflation report. Headline CPI slowed to 2.2% y/y from 2.4% the previous month, although forecasts expected a slightly larger decline to 2.1%.
This data confirms a cooling inflation environment, strengthening arguments for a more dovish stance from the Bank of Canada. Additional pressure stems from falling oil prices, which traditionally drag down commodity currencies.
The US dollar, meanwhile, gained support from shifting interest-rate expectations: markets have scaled back the likelihood of a December rate cut after Federal Reserve officials warned about the risks of inflation rebounding.
Still, dollar bulls remain cautious. Traders are also weighing signals of a softening US economy, including the effects of the extended government shutdown. The market is now awaiting Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes and Thursday’s delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls report, both of which will shed more light on the policy outlook and could fuel further movement in the USD/CAD pair.
Intraday technical picture:
Given the unfolding situation on the 4H USD/CAD chart, we see the price bouncing upward from 1.4013, with a chance of a temporary recovery toward the 1.4108 target.
Gold prices dropped to their lowest point in more than a week as the market dialed back expectations for a swift Fed rate cut. Fading confidence in December easing, along with the absence of new data caused by the end of the government shutdown, continues to keep pressure on demand for the metal.
Possible technical scenarios:
Gold prices on the daily chart are still holding above the key psychological support at $4,000 per ounce. If this level holds, the metal could rebound toward resistance at 4209.95. If not, a consolidation below $4,000 per ounce would clear the path for XAU/USD to move down toward support at 3873.23.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The drop in odds for a December Fed rate cut — now just over 46%, compared to 67% a week earlier — has been the main force driving gold lower. Firm statements from Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chairman Jefferson’s call to “move slowly” with any further cuts, have strengthened dollar sentiment and reduced appeal for gold, which typically moves inversely to the dollar.
At the same time, traders continue to evaluate the potential for more accommodative policy in the medium term. Analysts note that signs of a cooling US economy, the likelihood of rate reductions in the coming quarters, and ongoing central bank diversification into gold form a supportive backdrop over the next few months. Still, renewed uncertainty around Fed policy is preventing prices from staging a stronger recovery.
Delayed data releases will now play a decisive role: Wednesday’s Fed meeting minutes and Thursday’s US employment report for September. These updates will help traders regain clarity after the pause in statistics and shed light on the monetary policy outlook, shaping gold’s next direction.
Intraday technical picture:
From the look of things on the 4H chart, the price bounced upward from the 4002.27 level, though this may represent only a short-term correction after the decline. The recovery target remains the 4209.95 resistance level.
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