The coming week will be pivotal for assessing the resilience of the global economy. The spotlight is on the "monetary policy divergence": while the US Fed faces signs of a cooling labor market, European regulators are bracing for action due to mounting inflationary pressures. Friday’s NFP release in the US will serve as the final chord, determining the dollar's trajectory for the remainder of May.
The European maneuver: Speeches by Christine Lagarde and ECB top management (Lane and Schnabel) are critical this week. Markets are scouring for confirmation of a potential June rate hike to curb inflation fueled by the Middle East crisis.
US Labor market under fire: A sequence of data—from JOLTS to ADP and Friday’s NFP—will reveal the extent of the labor market's "remission." If job openings continue to shrink, dovish sentiment may return despite the Fed's best efforts.
The energy factor: Wednesday’s Crude Oil Inventories will provide insight into how severely the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is impacting actual US reserves.
Eurozone
8:00 a.m. GMT: Manufacturing PMI (April). (Actual: 52.2; Forecast: 52.2; Previous: 51.6). EU industry is showing unexpected resilience. Holding above 52 is a bullish signal for the euro, confirming that the economy has adapted to high resource prices.
Eurozone
12:30 p.m. GMT: ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks. The week's headline event. Following recent hints at a June hike, every word from Lagarde will be under the microscope. A hawkish tone will bolster the EUR.
United States
1:45 p.m. GMT: Services PMI (April). (Forecast: 51.3; Previous: 51.3).
2:00 p.m. GMT: New Home Sales (March). (Forecast: 1K; Previous: 587K). Note: Expect abnormal volatility in the event of a significant deviation from the forecast.
2:00 p.m. GMT: JOLTS Job Openings (March). (Forecast: 6.870M; Previous: 6.882M). The US labor market is starting to "cool off." A decline in openings would give the Fed reason to consider a pause, potentially weakening the dollar locally.
2:00 p.m. GMT: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (April). (Forecast: 53.8; Previous: 54.0).
Eurozone
8:00 a.m. GMT: Services PMI (April). (Forecast: 47.4; Previous: 47.4).
8:00 a.m. GMT: S&P Global Composite PMI (April). (Forecast: 48.6; Previous: 48.6). The EU services sector remains in a stagnation zone (below 50). This limits the euro's upside potential in cross rates.
United States
12:15 p.m. GMT: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (April). (Forecast: 90K; Previous: 62K). The dress rehearsal before Friday’s main event. Stronger figures would be a bullish signal for the DXY.
2:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. (Previous: -6.234M). A sharp draw in inventories amid current geopolitics could send oil prices to new local highs.
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. (Forecast: 203K; Previous: 189K). A rise in claims above 200K would confirm the economic cooling trend.
Eurozone
12:40 p.m. GMT: ECB's Lane Speaks.
5:00 p.m. GMT: ECB's Schnabel Speaks. Back-to-back speeches from influential committee members. If Schnabel echoes Lagarde’s hawkish stance, the euro could end the day with strong gains.
Canada
12:30 p.m. GMT: Unemployment Rate (April). (Forecast: 6.7%; Previous: 6.7%). Crucial for CAD pairs.
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT: Non-Farm Payrolls (April). (Forecast: 73K; Previous: 178K).
12:30 p.m. GMT: Unemployment Rate (April). (Forecast: 4.3%; Previous: 4.3%). The moment of truth. The forecast suggests a sharp slowdown in hiring (nearly 50%). If the actual data misses the forecast, the dollar could face its worst Friday of the month.
Geopolitics overrides technicals: Remember Alex Gerchik’s rule—the market accounts for everything, but in 2026, headlines regarding the Strait of Hormuz can create "spikes" that no indicator can predict. Strict risk management is a must.
The NFP focus: The US employment forecast (73K vs. 178K) is extremely pessimistic. If the actual reading comes in above 100K, the dollar may surge on the "positive surprise."
ECB on the offensive: With multiple European speakers this week, there are excellent opportunities for volatility trading in EUR/USD, especially on Tuesday and Thursday.
Gerchik’s Levels: Do not try to guess the news; read the chart. As Alex Gerchik says, the intentions of major players are already drawn on the levels of support and resistance.
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